Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting
Leader sits at 94% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.00%
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
89¢
Above 3.50%
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 26, 2028
493 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 0.00%
KXFED-27JUN-T0.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 4.25%
KXFED-26DEC-T4.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.75%
KXFED-27JUN-T4.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.00%
KXFED-27JUN-T4.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.50%
KXFED-27JAN-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 0.25%
KXFED-27JUN-T0.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.75%
KXFED-27MAR-T3.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.25%
KXFED-27APR-T4.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 4.00%
KXFED-26DEC-T4.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jan 26, 2028 meeting?: Above 3.25%
KXFED-28JAN-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.25%
KXFED-27JUN-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jan 26, 2028 meeting?: Above 3.50%
KXFED-28JAN-T3.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.00%
KXFED-27JUN-T3.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 2.75%
KXFED-27JUN-T2.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 2.50%
KXFED-27JUN-T2.50
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 2.25%
KXFED-27JUN-T2.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 2.00%
KXFED-27JUN-T2.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.00%
KXFED-27JAN-T4.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.75%
KXFED-27APR-T3.75
Analysis
This probability represents traders' collective expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep its target rate above 4.00% when it meets on January 27, 2027. At 96%, the market is pricing in a high likelihood the Fed maintains rates above that threshold for the next six months. The current level reflects recent inflation data and Fed communications suggesting resistance to aggressive rate cuts. The primary uncertainty would resolve following the Fed's December 2026 meeting, where officials signal their January intentions through policy decisions and guidance. Market participants are heavily betting against a scenario where the Fed cuts rates below 4.00% by late January, though modest rate cuts between now and then remain priced in by competing contracts showing lower probability for below-3.75% bounds.
- ›As of early July 2026, the current federal funds rate upper bound is 5.25-5.50%, so reaching exactly 4.00% by January would require approximately 125-150 basis points of cuts over six months
- ›The December 9, 2026 Fed meeting shows 93% probability of rates staying above 2.75% but only 86% above 3.50%, indicating significant uncertainty about the pace of cuts in Q4 2026
- ›The July 29, 2026 meeting contract trades at only 15 cents, suggesting markets expect immediate rate cuts from current levels, creating a steeper glide path to 4.00% by January
- ›Economic data between now and December—particularly inflation readings and employment reports—will materially influence whether the Fed can or will cut 125+ basis points without triggering policy reversal
- ›The 96% probability derives from a single contract (above 2.75% post-January meeting) and is not an arithmetic average; competing outcomes suggest meaningful tail risk below 4.00%
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above 4.00%↑35pp47→82¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 4.00%↑33pp28→61¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 3.75%↑28pp27→55¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 3.75%↑16pp55→71¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 4.25%↑15pp12→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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