Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing September 30, 2026.

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14¢
Bid/Ask 13/14¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $19,549.165·OI $30,534.691·Closes Sep 30, 2026·155d remaining
0xace3c72c24fccb6731433483ece41c780432d84850edccd5a6bf3147ccea62a9
7-day price42 snapshots · 118 regime
50¢14¢ current
Apr 2011¢Apr 28

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1451.0%
IY (No) 38.5%
Adj IY 622%
CRI 6
Overround -0.6%
LAS 0.14
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1451.0%
IY (No)38.5%
Adj IY622%
CRI6
Overround-0.6%
LAS0.14

Regime

Label
maker
Score
0.295
Computed
4/28/2026, 11:27:05 AM
Observability noneEvent type political
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/28/2026, 11:23:53 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xace3c72c24fccb6731433483ece41c780432d84850edccd5a6bf3147ccea62a9 yes 100

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