Will the US government be shut down for at least 150 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will the US government be shut down for at least 150 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an 11% probability of a 150-day shutdown between February and December 2026, but the extreme 2202% implied yield on Yes contracts signals severe mispricing or tail-risk hedging demand rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 11% probability of a 150-day shutdown between February and December 2026, but the extreme 2202% implied yield on Yes contracts signals severe mispricing or tail-risk hedging demand rather than genuine conviction. The 7-day price decline from 8¢ to 6¢ combined with modest $1,427 daily volume and wide 5¢ spread suggests thin liquidity and potential for sharp moves, while the 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful uncertainty near resolution. A 150-day shutdown would be historically unprecedented (the longest on record was 35 days in 2018-19), making the asymmetric yield structure more reflective of catastrophic scenario pricing than baseline probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If the duration of the first US federal government shutdown between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 due to a lapse of appropriations is at least 150 days, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G150 yes 100