Will Claude go down on __ days in April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 84% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
84%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
507 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027
Analysis
This market estimates a 40% probability that Claude (an AI system) will experience downtime on 12 or more days in April 2026. The estimate reflects aggregated trader views across two venues, with Polymarket pricing slightly higher than Kalshi at 44% versus 38%. The probability is primarily driven by two factors: historical frequency of outages for large AI systems and the specific operational resilience of Claude's infrastructure during the measured month. The market will resolve based on actual documented downtime events in April, making this a straightforward observable outcome. Traders appear modestly uncertain, suggesting either insufficient historical data on Claude's reliability, varied expectations about infrastructure stress during this period, or disagreement about what constitutes a qualifying downtime event.
- ›Claude's documented uptime statistics or outage frequency from prior months provide a baseline for April expectations
- ›The definition of 'down' in the contract terms—whether it includes partial service degradation, regional outages, or only complete unavailability
- ›April 2026 operational schedule and any planned maintenance windows that could count toward the 12-day threshold
- ›Comparable reliability metrics for competing AI services might indicate whether 12+ days is typical or anomalous for the industry
- ›Real-time monitoring data through April would directly inform whether the threshold is trending toward achievement or away from it
What moved the line
- Jun 12Before Apr 1, 2027↑6pp73→79¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (84% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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