What is the current probability for "Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit this year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 38¢ (38% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 21, 2026. 226 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit this year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 459.7% and 56.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit this year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

KalshiDec 21, 2026226 days left

Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit this year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 38¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 26¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 12¢ spread.

Open on Kalshi JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

38¢

$7K volume

$4K liquidity

6622% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$107

Best sibling

Ariana Grande 85¢

Ticker

KX1SONG-DEC2626-WEE

Market snapshot

The Weeknd in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit this year?. The displayed quote is 38¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $7K. In the KX1SONG-DEC2626 family, this outcome ranks #6 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.

Outcome

The Weeknd

Family rank

#6 of 16

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

38¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Dec 21, 2026

Reported volume

$7K

Family context

16 outcomes · KX1SONG-DEC2626

Quote range

2¢-85¢

Family leader

Ariana Grande 85¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 5m ago

Venue identifier: KX1SONG-DEC2626-WEE. Family volume: $107.

Price history

38¢ current

+4¢

25¢50¢75¢100¢

Apr 8, 2026May 7, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

26 / 38¢

Kalshi

12¢ spread

BidSize

26¢10

25¢20

24¢500

23¢32

18¢130

AskSize

38¢44

39¢500

40¢60

46¢438

50¢16

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If The Weeknd has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 21, 2026

Identifier

KX1SONG-DEC2626-WEE

Event family

KX1SONG-DEC2626.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$107

Outcomes

Highest price

Ariana Grande 85¢

Current share

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

The Weeknd

kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-WEE

26¢$0$00.5

Ariana Grande

kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-ARI