Tom Hardy · KXBOND-30
Tom Hardy is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside KXBOND-30.
Price history
2¢ current
Contract brief
If Tom Hardy is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Tom Hardy
Rank
#13 of 16
Leader
Callum Turner 41¢
Range
1¢-41¢
Family volume
$20K
Identifier
KXBOND-30-TOM
May 28, 2026, 8:37 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$8K
Family rank
#13 of 16
16 outcomes · KXBOND-30
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Family volume
$20K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Tom Hardy is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Identifier
KXBOND-30-TOM
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at —.
Event family
KXBOND-30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Callum Turner 41¢
Current share
0%
Callum Turner
kalshi · KXBOND-30-CAL
Jacob Elordi
kalshi · KXBOND-30-JACO
Tom Francis
kalshi · KXBOND-30-TOMF
Harris Dickinson
kalshi · KXBOND-30-HAR
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
kalshi · KXBOND-30-ATJ
Henry Cavill
kalshi · KXBOND-30-HC
Josh O'Connor
kalshi · KXBOND-30-JOS
Aaron Pierre
kalshi · KXBOND-30-AP
Damson Idris
kalshi · KXBOND-30-DI
Idris Elba
kalshi · KXBOND-30-IDRIS
Tom Holland
kalshi · KXBOND-30-TOMH
Theo James
kalshi · KXBOND-30-THEO
Regé-Jean Page
kalshi · KXBOND-30-REG
Charlie Hunnam
kalshi · KXBOND-30-CHARL
Tom Hardy
kalshi · KXBOND-30-TOM
Cillian Murphy
kalshi · KXBOND-30-CIL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.