Who will be the next James Bond?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
18h ago
24h volume
$6K
12 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2035
3112 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond
Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond?: Callum Turner
KXBOND-30-CAL
Cluster 2
Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond
Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond?: Jacob Elordi
KXBOND-30-JACO
Cluster 3
Will Theo James be the next James Bond
Will Theo James be the next James Bond?: Theo James
KXBOND-30-THEO
Cluster 4
Will Aaron Pierre be the next James Bond
Will Aaron Pierre be the next James Bond?: Aaron Pierre
KXBOND-30-AP
Cluster 5
Will Josh O'Connor be the next James Bond
Will Josh O'Connor be the next James Bond?: Josh O'Connor
KXBOND-30-JOS
Cluster 6
Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond
Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?: Aaron Taylor-Johnson
KXBOND-30-ATJ
Cluster 7
Will Anya Taylor-Joy perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 8
Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond
Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond?: Henry Cavill
KXBOND-30-HC
Cluster 9
Who will perform the next James Bond Song
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lorde
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-LOR
Cluster 10
Will Ben Whishaw perform as Q in the next James Bond film
Will Ben Whishaw perform as Q in the next James Bond film?: Ben Whishaw
KXPERFORMROLE007-Q-BEN
Cluster 11
Will Phoebe Dynevor perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film
Will Phoebe Dynevor perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film?: Phoebe Dynevor
KXPERFORMROLE007-MONEYPENNY-PHO
Cluster 12
Will Sydney Sweeney perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
What moved the line
- Jun 18Callum Turner↓8pp45→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Callum Turner↑8pp40→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Anya Taylor-Joy↓8pp21→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Callum Turner↓6pp49→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Aaron Pierre↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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