Will Tony Guy be the Republican nominee for PA-17?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will Tony Guy be the Republican nominee for PA-17?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $712 in open interest, making the 96¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 6¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $712 in open interest, making the 96¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 6¢ spread. The massive 857% implied yield on the "No" side suggests severe mispricing or that traders view a Guy nomination as nearly certain, though the lack of trading activity prevents validation of this consensus. With 566 days until expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, there's meaningful time for the political landscape to shift, warranting caution before treating the 96¢ price as a genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If Tony Guy wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 PA-17 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPAPRIMARY-17R26-TGUY yes 100