Will Tottenham be Relegated from English Premier League in 2025-26 Season?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will Tottenham be Relegated from English Premier League in 2025-26 Season?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Kalshi, closing May 25, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 958% implied yield on both sides, suggesting severe liquidity constraints despite $99.8K open interest and only a 1¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 958% implied yield on both sides, suggesting severe liquidity constraints despite $99.8K open interest and only a 1¢ spread. The price has surged 56% over seven days to 50¢, yet Tottenham's current Premier League standing and financial resources make relegation genuinely unlikely, indicating the market may be overweighting tail risk or suffering from thin trading conditions near expiry (38 days remaining). With only $3,983 in 24-hour volume and a realized volatility of 147%, this appears to be a low-liquidity venue where the even odds may not reflect true probability.
Resolution rules
If Tottenham is relegated from English Premier League in 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLRELEGATION-26-TOT yes 100