What is the current probability for "Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 57 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4670.7% and 86.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketJun 30, 202657 days left

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 12¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 10¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 4¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

12¢

$11K volume

$11K liquidity

2% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$483K

Best sibling

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs 81¢

Ticker

0xfa772932…e97f

Price history

12¢ current

+3¢

Apr 8, 2026May 1, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

10 / 14¢

Polymarket

4¢ spread

BidSize

100¢1.0K

10¢75

8¢100

6¢200

5¢168

4¢300

3¢400

2¢500

AskSize

14¢100

15¢100

18¢55

20¢100

30¢125

31¢222

32¢222

41¢106

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0xfa772932…e97f

Event family

Tariffs & trade.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$483K

Outcomes