What is the current probability for "100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 57 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 15286.1% and 26.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketJun 30, 202657 days left

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 4¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

4¢

$46K volume

$2K liquidity

9% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$483K

Best sibling

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs 81¢

Ticker

0x1b3f1f2b…94e7

Price history

4¢ current

−6¢

Apr 9, 2026May 1, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

2 / 6¢

Polymarket

4¢ spread

BidSize

100¢9

100¢648

100¢307

100¢208

100¢33

100¢10

100¢237

2¢49

AskSize

6¢84

15¢59

15¢48

37¢15

48¢606

48¢111

59¢217

69¢80

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x1b3f1f2b…94e7

Event family

Tariffs & trade.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$483K

Outcomes