Before Aug 1, 2026 · Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before
Before Aug 1, 2026 is priced at 22¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before.
Price history
22¢ current
−23¢Contract brief
If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Aug 1, 2026
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 53¢
Range
17¢-53¢
Family volume
$50
Identifier
KXTRADEDEALCUBA-27-B260801
Jun 25, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
17¢
Ask
18¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$45
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$50
Orderbook snapshot
17 / 18¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTRADEDEALCUBA-27-B260801
Event family
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$50
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 53¢
Current share
90%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.