SimpleFunctions
KalshiMay 4, 2026

Will Trump say "Autism" before May 4, 2026?

This contract is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 99¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

99¢
$89K volume
$87K liquidity
19% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$469K

Best sibling

Barack Hussein Obama 99¢

Ticker

KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04-AUTI

Price history

99¢ current

+91¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 27, 2026Apr 30, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

99 / 100¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
99¢540K
98¢5.6K
95¢25
93¢50
60¢1
AskSize

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Autism, or a plural or possessive form of Autism, is stated by Donald Trump after April 27th at 10:00am ET and before May 4, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 4, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04-AUTI

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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