Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 866.8% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 23.0% on the "No" side, reflecting the 14¢ price point on a highly speculative outcome. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $7.9M open interest and a 4¢ spread suggests illiquidity despite meaningful capital deployed, indicating this may be a position held by a small number of traders rather than an active market. The 3¢ price rise over seven days (11¢ to 14¢) is notable given the lack of volume, potentially signaling either a shift in conviction among existing holders or thin-market price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count. A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count. A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade