Will Tulsi Gabbard announce their departure as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before May 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Tulsi Gabbard announce their departure as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market has experienced extreme volatility, collapsing from 14¢ to 4¢ over seven days before recovering slightly to 8¢, suggesting significant uncertainty or news-driven repricing around Gabbard's tenure.
Analysis
The market has experienced extreme volatility, collapsing from 14¢ to 4¢ over seven days before recovering slightly to 8¢, suggesting significant uncertainty or news-driven repricing around Gabbard's tenure. The extraordinarily high implied yield on the Yes side (62,044%) combined with minimal liquidity ($7,098 open interest) and low 24-hour volume ($276.85) indicates this is a thin, speculative market where small trades can move prices dramatically. With only 14 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 24, the market is pricing in an 8% probability of departure announcement, though the extreme realized volatility (1,500%) and recent sharp price movements suggest considerable uncertainty about the true probability.
Resolution rules
If Tulsi Gabbard leaves (or announces she will leave) as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGABBARDANNOUNCEOUT-26APR-MAY01 yes 100