Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.68ㅤ?
Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for Apri.... This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $13 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 62¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $13 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 62¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 8¢ spread. The astronomical implied yields (879% for Yes, 2341% for No) signal severe mispricing typical of thin markets, with the risk-adjusted yield of 1170% suggesting significant arbitrage opportunity if liquidity were available. The 7-point price decline over seven days (69¢ to 62¢) combined with the neutral regime and low cliff risk indicates modest recent bearish sentiment, though with expiration just 25 days away, the market lacks sufficient depth to confidently predict whether ground beef will exceed $6.68/lb in April 2026.
Resolution rules
If the United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 6.68ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSGBEEF-26MAY12-T6.68 yes 100