Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.76ㅤ?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for Apri.... This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $35 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 7004.7% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $35 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 7004.7% implied yield on the Yes side. The sharp 7-cent price decline over seven days (21¢ to 17¢) suggests either shifting sentiment toward lower beef prices or thin-market volatility, and with only 25 days to expiry, resolution uncertainty is elevated given the high cliff risk index of 5. The $0.76 threshold appears well above current ground beef prices, making the 24% probability seem plausible, but the negligible liquidity makes this market unsuitable for serious position-taking.
Resolution rules
If the United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 6.76ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSGBEEF-26MAY12-T6.76 yes 100