Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.80ㅤ?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for Apri.... This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $36 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable despite the extraordinarily high 16,499% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $36 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable despite the extraordinarily high 16,499% implied yield on the Yes side. The 8¢ bid-ask spread represents 53% of the current price, and the recent price decline from 10¢ to 8¢ over seven days suggests either shifting sentiment toward lower beef prices or thin-market volatility rather than fundamental repricing. With 25 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 12, traders should be cautious that the extreme yield figures reflect the illiquidity premium rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If the United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 6.80ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSGBEEF-26MAY12-T6.80 yes 100