Will US used cars and trucks CPI for April 2026 be above 179.0?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will US used cars and trucks CPI for April 2026 be above 179.0?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. The market is pricing a 63% probability that used car CPI will exceed 179.0 in April 2026, with the Yes contract showing an extraordinary 1222% annualized yield despite only 25 days to expiration—a sign of extreme illiquidity given the minimal $9 daily volume and $527 open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 63% probability that used car CPI will exceed 179.0 in April 2026, with the Yes contract showing an extraordinary 1222% annualized yield despite only 25 days to expiration—a sign of extreme illiquidity given the minimal $9 daily volume and $527 open interest. The price has rallied 6 cents over seven days (from 48¢ to 54¢), suggesting recent bullish sentiment, though the wide 7-cent spread and neutral regime score indicate uncertainty and thin order books. With resolution just weeks away and the CPI data point already deterministic, this market's unusually high yields reflect illiquidity premium rather than genuine opportunity.
Resolution rules
If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Used Cars and Trucks in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 179.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSEDCARCPI-26MAY12-T179.0 yes 100