Will US used cars and trucks CPI for April 2026 be above 180.0?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will US used cars and trucks CPI for April 2026 be above 180.0?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic price compression, collapsing from 25¢ to 11¢ over seven days, suggesting recent data or analysis has shifted sentiment sharply toward a "No" resolution.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic price compression, collapsing from 25¢ to 11¢ over seven days, suggesting recent data or analysis has shifted sentiment sharply toward a "No" resolution. The extreme implied yield on "Yes" (11,593%) reflects the severe mispricing typical of low-liquidity markets, with only $52.36 in 24-hour volume and a wide 9¢ spread, making this contract highly illiquid and potentially unreliable for serious positioning. With 25 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 8, this market carries substantial execution risk and should be approached cautiously given the thin order book and recent volatility.
Resolution rules
If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Used Cars and Trucks in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 180.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSEDCARCPI-26MAY12-T180.0 yes 100