Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love have at least 325,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love?
Prediction markets currently give a 67% probability that Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love have at least 325,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Doub.... This contract trades at 67¢ on Kalshi, closing June 19, 2026. This market shows extreme yield distortion with the Yes side offering 681.7% implied yield versus 536.1% for No, suggesting significant mispricing or liquidity constraints given the minimal $266 open interest and $72 daily volume.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield distortion with the Yes side offering 681.7% implied yield versus 536.1% for No, suggesting significant mispricing or liquidity constraints given the minimal $266 open interest and $72 daily volume. The 64¢ price has declined 11 cents over seven days (53¢ to 47¢), indicating weakening confidence in the 325,000 activity threshold despite the high probability implied by current pricing. With 60 days to expiry and a wide 17¢ bid-ask spread, this illiquid market presents execution risk that may explain the outsized yields rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love by Olivia Rodrigo has at least 325,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXALBUMSALES-YOUS-ACT-325000 yes 100