Will the Democratic Party win the WV-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3,456% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $17,268 in open interest, suggesting the 5¢ price reflects illiquidity rather than genuine conviction that Democrats cannot win WV-02. The massive volatility (1,308% realized) and 4¢ spread indicate thin order books, and with 201 days until expiry, there's substantial time for information arrival (0.5 events per hour) to move the needle—particularly given that West Virginia's 2nd district has shown competitive potential in recent cycles, making the 5% probability potentially undervalued for a well-funded Democratic challenger.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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