Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Red Bull Bragantino
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 36%, Polymarket at 23% — a 13pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
17 contracts
Polymarket
23%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
13pp
wide divergence
24h move
+3pp
13h ago
24h volume
$899
20 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
21 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 36¢ · Polymarket 23¢ · 13pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (23¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will Nongshim Red Force win” vs “Will Dplus KIA win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Nongshim Red Force win
Will Nongshim Red Force win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA League of Legends match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLGAME-26MAY040700NSDK-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLGAME-26MAY060400NSGEN-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win map 2 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLMAP-26MAY040700NSDK-2-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win map 1 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLMAP-26MAY060400NSGEN-1-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win map 1 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLMAP-26MAY040700NSDK-1-NS
Cluster 2
Will Dplus KIA win
Will Dplus KIA win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA League of Legends match?: Dplus KIA
KXLOLGAME-26MAY040700NSDK-DK
Will Dplus KIA win map 1 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA match?: Dplus KIA
KXLOLMAP-26MAY040700NSDK-1-DK
Will Dplus KIA win map 2 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA match?: Dplus KIA
KXLOLMAP-26MAY040700NSDK-2-DK
Cluster 3
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-2
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-4
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-1
Cluster 4
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)
0xadcf74…f821
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Kashiwa Reysol
0x3481b3…7cd2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)
0xc60a6d…d8a2
Cluster 5
Chapecoense at Mirassol: Totals: Over
Cluster 6
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Nongshim Red Force vs
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match?: Over 2.5 maps
KXLOLTOTALMAPS-26MAY060400NSGEN-3
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA League of Legends match?: Over 2.5 maps
KXLOLTOTALMAPS-26MAY040700NSDK-3
Cluster 7
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor?: Red Bull Racing
KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MIAGP26-RED
Cluster 8
Will Gen.G win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match
Will Gen.G win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match?: Gen.G
KXLOLGAME-26MAY060400NSGEN-GEN
Analysis
This market is pricing a 31% chance that Chapecoense defeats Red Bull Bragantino in an upcoming match. The probability reflects moderate uncertainty, with a 5 percentage point gap between Polymarket (35%) and Kalshi (30%), suggesting some disagreement across trader bases. Bragantino is favored as the likely winner at current odds. The main drivers of this probability are each team's recent form, head-to-head history, and squad availability. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty definitively—either Chapecoense wins outright or they don't. Pre-match factors like team news, injuries, or lineup changes could shift the probability in the days leading up to kickoff, while live performance during the match will determine the final outcome. The cross-venue gap suggests traders on Polymarket see slightly elevated value in a Chapecoense victory compared to Kalshi participants.
- ›Chapecoense's recent league form and current standing relative to Bragantino's position in the Brazilian football table
- ›Head-to-head record between the two clubs over the past 3-5 meetings, including goals scored and defensive records
- ›Availability of key players—injuries, suspensions, or absences for either squad in the days before the match
- ›Home or away status for this fixture and each team's record at their respective venues this season
- ›Polymarket traders pricing Chapecoense 5 percentage points higher than Kalshi traders, indicating potential disagreement on underlying team strength or recent momentum
What moved the line
- Apr 28Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑36pp32→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Nongshim Red Force↑29pp4→33¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑26pp17→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Dplus KIA↑24pp31→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Nongshim Red Force↑16pp4→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.