SimpleFunctions
1 contractPolymarketrefreshed 10 min agoCloses Jun 7, 2026 · 34d9pp · 18h

Atlas FC vs. Tigres de la UANL

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 1 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

23%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

23%

1 contract

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

+9pp

18h ago

24h volume

$109

1 contracts

Closes

Jun 7, 2026

34 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 37% (9 days, 9 points)Aggregate: 37% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 1 contract · 9d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Liga MX: Winner: Tigres UANL

1 contract$109

Analysis

This 14% probability reflects the market's assessment that Atlas FC will win an upcoming Liga MX match against Tigres de la UANL. The low probability suggests Tigres are favored, likely based on recent form, head-to-head record, or current league standing. The probability could move higher if Atlas has a strong recent run of results or if key Tigres players are unavailable; it could move lower if Tigres demonstrate dominance in training or Atlas suffer injuries to key performers. The match result itself will resolve this contract, making the actual kickoff the critical catalyst for settlement.

  • Recent win-loss records of both teams in Liga MX over the last 5-10 matches
  • Head-to-head historical performance between Atlas and Tigres in Liga MX
  • Team roster availability, including any injuries to starting players or suspensions
  • Current league standings and each team's position relative to playoff qualification
  • Home/away status and venue history, if the match location favors one team

What moved the line

  • May 1Winner: Tigres UANL15pp3015¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Winner: Tigres UANL13pp1528¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Winner: Tigres UANL9pp2837¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 28Winner: Tigres UANL7pp3730¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 29Winner: Tigres UANL5pp3035¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (23% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.