Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama
Leader sits at 41% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
CR Vasco da Gama
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Audax CS Italiano
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$10
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama
Analysis
This probability reflects the aggregated expectation that Audax CS Italiano will defeat CR Vasco da Gama in an upcoming match. The 30% baseline is supported primarily by Kalshi contracts showing modest confidence in Audax, though limited trading volume ($10 in 24h) across Polymarket suggests thin liquidity and potentially unstable pricing. The 5-percentage-point gap between venues (Polymarket at 34%, Kalshi at 29%) indicates some disagreement on Audax's chances. Resolution depends on the scheduled match outcome, which would eliminate all uncertainty immediately. Current pricing may reflect recent form, head-to-head records, or home-field advantage, though the sparse contract activity suggests most traders are focused on the higher-profile Flamengo vs. Vasco da Gama matchups visible in the contract list rather than this fixture.
- ›Audax CS Italiano's recent league position and win-loss record in the current season compared to Vasco da Gama's
- ›Home-field advantage status: whether Audax plays at home or away, and historical performance in that configuration
- ›Head-to-head historical results between the two clubs in their most recent 5-10 competitive meetings
- ›Low 24-hour trading volume ($10) on the primary Audax vs. Vasco contract, indicating limited market conviction or information flow
- ›Injury or suspension status of key players on either roster in the days immediately before the scheduled match
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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