Bank of England decision in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 55%, Polymarket at 47% — a 8pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
55%
3 contracts
Polymarket
47%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
8pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13K
20 contracts
Top contract
5¢
$4K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 55¢ · Polymarket 47¢ · 8pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (47¢, 17 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (55¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
13 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May” vs “Bank of Russia decision in June”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May
Cluster 2
Bank of Russia decision in June
Cluster 3
Bank of Mexico Decision in May
Cluster 4
Will the Bank of England
Will the Bank of England Maintain current rate at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Maintain current rate
KXCBDECISIONENGLAND-26JUN18-HOLD
Will the Bank of England Hike 1-25bps at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Hike 1-25bps
KXCBDECISIONENGLAND-26JUN18-H25
Cluster 5
Bank of Israel Decision in May
Cluster 6
Bank of Canada decision in June
Cluster 7
Bank of England decision in June
Cluster 8
Bank of Brazil Decision in June
Bank of Brazil Decision in June?: No Change
0x0111a2…7eac
Cluster 9
Bank of Japan Decision in June
Bank of Japan Decision in June?: 25 bps increase
0xb3237c…cff4
Cluster 10
Bank of Korea decision in May
Bank of Korea decision in May?: No Change
0x31d7a7…b0fe
Cluster 11
South African Reserve Bank Decision in May
South African Reserve Bank Decision in May?: Increase
0xd37d38…b7a9
Cluster 12
Will the inclusion of puffin on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed
Will the inclusion of puffin on the 2026 Bank of England wildlife shortlist be confirmed?: Puffin
KXWILDSHT-26-PUF
Cluster 13
Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June
Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June?: Decrease
0xfd60b9…98b6
What moved the line
- Apr 29Decrease↑49pp31→80¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29No change↓43pp65→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Maintain current rate↑25pp37→62¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30No change↓17pp22→5¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Decrease↓17pp23→6¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.