Bank of Japan Decision in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 70%, Polymarket at 48% — a 22pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
70%
2 contracts
Polymarket
48%
18 contracts
Cross-venue gap
22pp
wide divergence
24h move
−2pp
11h ago
24h volume
$13K
20 contracts
Closes
Jun 19, 2026
46 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 70¢ · Polymarket 48¢ · 22pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (48¢, 18 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (70¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
12 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Reserve Bank” vs “Bank of Russia decision in June”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Reserve Bank
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?: No Change
0x15b285…d6da
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?: Increase
0x2ed04f…98a1
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?: Increase
0x7a4548…1658
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?: No Change
0x13c19d…8eb1
Cluster 2
Bank of Russia decision in June
Cluster 3
Bank of Mexico Decision in May
Cluster 4
Bank of Japan Decision in June
Cluster 5
Bank of Israel Decision in May
Cluster 6
Bank of Canada decision in June
Cluster 7
Bank of Brazil Decision in June
Bank of Brazil Decision in June?: No Change
0x0111a2…7eac
Cluster 8
Bank of Korea decision in May
Bank of Korea decision in May?: No Change
0x31d7a7…b0fe
Cluster 9
Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the June 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting
Cluster 10
South African Reserve Bank Decision in May
South African Reserve Bank Decision in May?: Increase
0xd37d38…b7a9
Cluster 11
Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June
Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June?: Decrease
0xfd60b9…98b6
Cluster 12
Will the Japan inflation rate MoM for April 2026 be above -0.3%
Will the Japan inflation rate MoM for April 2026 be above -0.3%?: Above -0.3%
KXJPMOMINF-26MAY21-T-0.3
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate decision occurring in April 2026. At 52%, traders are essentially split between two outcomes, suggesting genuine uncertainty about the central bank's monetary policy stance. The probability is primarily driven by recent economic data from Japan—including inflation trends, employment figures, and GDP growth—which determine whether the BoJ will adjust rates or hold steady. Market participants are also factoring in global monetary policy signals, particularly from other major central banks that influence currency valuations and capital flows. The key catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the official BoJ decision announcement on its scheduled meeting date, after which the contract will settle based on the actual policy action taken.
- ›Recent Japan CPI and core inflation readings relative to BoJ's 2% target, which directly influences rate decision likelihood
- ›Employment and wage growth data showing labor market tightness, a key factor in the BoJ's policy calculus
- ›USD/JPY exchange rate movements and expectations for Fed policy divergence, which affect BoJ decision timing
- ›Scheduled BoJ Monetary Policy Decision meeting date and any forward guidance statements released beforehand
- ›Comparative rate expectations across other G7 central banks, which shape relative attractiveness of yen-denominated assets
What moved the line
- Apr 29Decrease↑49pp31→80¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29No change↓43pp65→22¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Above -0.3%↑41pp50→91¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30No change↓17pp22→5¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30No Change↑17pp69→86¢ · Polymarket
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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