Birmingham City FC vs. Preston North End FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 13 contracts. Kalshi at 47%, Polymarket at 69% — a 22pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
12 contracts
Polymarket
69%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
22pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$122K
13 contracts
Top contract
94¢
$45K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 47¢ · Polymarket 69¢ · 22pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (47¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (69¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
13 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Shifters win the Shifters vs. Team Heretics League of Legends match
Will Shifters win the Shifters vs. Team Heretics League of Legends match?: Shifters
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031100SHFTTH-SHFT
Cluster 2
Will Fluxo W7M win the LOS vs. Fluxo W7M League of Legends match
Will Fluxo W7M win the LOS vs. Fluxo W7M League of Legends match?: Fluxo W7M
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031200LOSFLU-FLU
Cluster 3
Will LOS win the LOS vs. Fluxo W7M League of Legends match
Will LOS win the LOS vs. Fluxo W7M League of Legends match?: LOS
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031200LOSFLU-LOS
Cluster 4
Will Natus Vincere win the Natus Vincere vs. G2 Esports League of Legends match
Cluster 5
Will G2 Esports win the Natus Vincere vs. G2 Esports League of Legends match
Cluster 6
Will LYON win the Sentinels vs. LYON League of Legends match
Will LYON win the Sentinels vs. LYON League of Legends match?: LYON
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031600SENLY-LY
Cluster 7
Will Sentinels win the Sentinels vs. LYON League of Legends match
Will Sentinels win the Sentinels vs. LYON League of Legends match?: Sentinels
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031600SENLY-SEN
Cluster 8
Will FlyQuest win the Shopify Rebellion vs. FlyQuest League of Legends match
Will FlyQuest win the Shopify Rebellion vs. FlyQuest League of Legends match?: FlyQuest
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031900SRFLY-FLY
Cluster 9
Will KT Rolster Challengers win the DRX Challengers vs. KT Rolster Challengers League of Legends match
Cluster 10
Will Zero Tenacity win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match
Cluster 11
Will DRX Challengers win the DRX Challengers vs. KT Rolster Challengers League of Legends match
Cluster 12
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?
0x6695d4…800a
Cluster 13
Will Preston North End be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2025-26 season
What moved the line
- May 3KT Rolster Challengers↑24pp35→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 2KT Rolster Challengers↑20pp15→35¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?↑18pp47→65¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?↑15pp55→70¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?↓12pp65→53¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.