BNB price on Apr 21, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 33%, Polymarket at 26% — a 7pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
15 contracts
Polymarket
26%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
7pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$277
20 contracts
Top contract
9¢
$88 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 33¢ · Polymarket 26¢ · 7pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (26¢, 5 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (33¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 19% of their title tokens — “What price will BNB hit in 2026” vs “Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price will BNB hit in 2026
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↓ 300
0xdb891d…d56d
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↓ 200
0x1b3b0e…fbb3
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↓ 500
0x3d82b5…4857
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↑ 1400
0x82928a…f5c0
What price will BNB hit in 2026?: ↑ 1500
0x991030…4c63
Cluster 2
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above 4.4%?: Above 4.4%
KXUSPPIYOY-26MAY13-T4.4
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above 4.0%?: Above 4.0%
KXUSPPIYOY-26MAY13-T4.0
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above 4.2%?: Above 4.2%
KXUSPPIYOY-26MAY13-T4.2
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above 5.0%?: Above 5.0%
KXUSPPIYOY-26MAY13-T5.0
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above 3.4%?: Above 3.4%
KXUSPPIYOY-26MAY13-T3.4
Cluster 3
bnb price on may 3, 2026
BNB price on May 3, 2026?: $520 or above
KXBNBD-26MAY0317-T519.99
BNB price on May 3, 2026?: $540 or above
KXBNBD-26MAY0317-T539.99
BNB price on May 3, 2026?: $545 or above
KXBNBD-26MAY0317-T544.99
BNB price on May 3, 2026?: $525 or above
KXBNBD-26MAY0317-T524.99
BNB price on May 3, 2026?: $535 or above
KXBNBD-26MAY0317-T534.99
Cluster 4
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 30
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 304.0ㅤ?: Above 304.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26MAY12-T304.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 308.0ㅤ?: Above 308.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26MAY12-T308.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 302.0ㅤ?: Above 302.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26MAY12-T302.0
Cluster 5
Will egg prices rise by more than 0% in Apr 2026
Will egg prices rise by more than 0% in Apr 2026?: above 0%
KXEGGS-APR26-0
Cluster 6
Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.80ㅤ
What moved the line
- Apr 29Above 3.4%↑31pp58→89¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Above 4.2%↓26pp56→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Above 3.4%↓25pp89→64¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28↑ 1400↑24pp11→35¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29↑ 1400↓24pp35→11¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.