CA Juventud vs. Academia Puerto Cabello
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 29%, Polymarket at 31%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
3 contracts
Polymarket
31%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$38
20 contracts
Top contract
27¢
$38 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 29¢ · Polymarket 31¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (29¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (31¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Academia Puerto Cabello vs” vs “CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Academia Puerto Cabello vs
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano: CS Cienciano
0x1b0f42…ce64
Academia Puerto Cabello vs Cienciano Winner?: Cienciano
KXCONMEBOLSUDGAME-26MAY05APCCIE-CIE
Academia Puerto Cabello vs Cienciano Winner?: Tie
KXCONMEBOLSUDGAME-26MAY05APCCIE-TIE
Academia Puerto Cabello vs Cienciano Winner?: Academia Puerto Cabello
KXCONMEBOLSUDGAME-26MAY05APCCIE-APC
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Academia Puerto Cabello (-1.5)
0x4a1204…15f7
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x376086…86e3
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xcdb8fe…44e4
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x4a9cea…f5f4
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5)
0xfe442e…dd9c
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: CS Cienciano (-2.5)
0xd9e4b9…54cc
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano: Draw (Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano)
0x5148d0…bf9f
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: CS Cienciano (-1.5)
0x9c8878…2195
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xc7befb…da6f
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano: Academia Puerto Cabello
0xe3e33b…3545
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x57efa3…fc4b
Cluster 2
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro: Draw (CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro)
0xdb36e3…52ca
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8d75f4…344f
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x1768e0…f921
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xe6b23a…29ea
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets: CA Mineiro (-2.5)
0x414244…122c
What moved the line
- May 3Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5)↑10pp13→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 3CS Cienciano (-2.5)↑8pp11→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 3O/U 4.5↓5pp18→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Both Teams to Score↑4pp50→54¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.