SimpleFunctions
20 contractsKalshi + Polymarketrefreshed 8 min ago

CA Juventud vs. Academia Puerto Cabello

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 29%, Polymarket at 31%.

Implied probability

31%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

29%

3 contracts

Polymarket

31%

17 contracts

Cross-venue gap

2pp

tight

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$38

20 contracts

Top contract

27¢

$38 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 31% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 31% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 3d

Cross-venue edge

Kalshi 29¢ · Polymarket 31¢ · 2pp spread

Buy on Kalshi (29¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (31¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.

Bracket families

2 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Academia Puerto Cabello vs” vs “CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Academia Puerto Cabello vs

15 contracts$0
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano: CS Cienciano

0x1b0f42…ce64

28¢1pp$0P

Academia Puerto Cabello vs Cienciano Winner?: Cienciano

KXCONMEBOLSUDGAME-26MAY05APCCIE-CIE

23¢$0K

Academia Puerto Cabello vs Cienciano Winner?: Tie

KXCONMEBOLSUDGAME-26MAY05APCCIE-TIE

24¢$0K

Academia Puerto Cabello vs Cienciano Winner?: Academia Puerto Cabello

KXCONMEBOLSUDGAME-26MAY05APCCIE-APC

40¢$0K

Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Academia Puerto Cabello (-1.5)

0x4a1204…15f7

17¢+2pp$0P

Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Both Teams to Score

0x376086…86e3

54¢+4pp$0P

Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 2.5

0xcdb8fe…44e4

48¢$0P

Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 1.5

0x4a9cea…f5f4

74¢$0P

Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5)

0xfe442e…dd9c

13¢+10pp$0P

Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: CS Cienciano (-2.5)

0xd9e4b9…54cc

11¢+8pp$0P

Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano: Draw (Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano)

0x5148d0…bf9f

28¢1pp$0P

Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: CS Cienciano (-1.5)

0x9c8878…2195

14¢$0P

Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 3.5

0xc7befb…da6f

26¢$0P

Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano: Academia Puerto Cabello

0xe3e33b…3545

45¢2pp$0P

Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 4.5

0x57efa3…fc4b

12¢5pp$0P

Cluster 2

CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro

5 contracts$38

What moved the line

  • May 3Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5)10pp1323¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3CS Cienciano (-2.5)8pp1119¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3O/U 4.55pp1813¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Both Teams to Score4pp5054¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.