Will the Bank of England Cut 1-25bps at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting
Leader sits at 61% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Maintain current rate
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Hike 1-25bps
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$309
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 18, 2026
46 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Bank of England
Will the Bank of England Maintain current rate at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Maintain current rate
KXCBDECISIONENGLAND-26JUN18-HOLD
Will the Bank of England Hike 1-25bps at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Hike 1-25bps
KXCBDECISIONENGLAND-26JUN18-H25
Will the Bank of England Hike more than 25bps at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Hike more than 25bps
KXCBDECISIONENGLAND-26JUN18-H25P
Will the Bank of England Cut 1-25bps at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Cut 1-25bps
KXCBDECISIONENGLAND-26JUN18-C25
Will the Bank of England Cut more than 25bps at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Cut more than 25bps
KXCBDECISIONENGLAND-26JUN18-C25P
Analysis
This reflects traders' assessment of roughly a 1-in-4 chance that the Bank of England will lower its base rate by 1-25 basis points when the Monetary Policy Committee meets in June 2026. The probability sits well below expectations for a rate hold (61%), suggesting markets view a cut as unlikely in the near term. The outcome depends primarily on inflation data, employment figures, and economic growth readings between now and the meeting. Related BoE decisions and guidance released in the coming weeks will clarify the central bank's near-term direction. The June MPC meeting itself—scheduled for June 17-18, 2026—serves as the resolution event, though market expectations typically narrow significantly once forward guidance is issued by BoE officials.
- ›Current BoE base rate level and recent inflation print relative to the 2% target
- ›UK employment data and wage growth trends published before the June meeting
- ›Market pricing for BoE rate expectations as reflected in overnight index swaps and other derivatives
- ›Communications from BoE officials regarding economic conditions and policy stance in May and early June
- ›Global central bank actions (ECB, Federal Reserve) and their potential influence on sterling and UK economic outlook
What moved the line
- May 1Maintain current rate↑25pp37→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Hike 1-25bps↑9pp16→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Hike 1-25bps↑5pp25→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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