CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5)
Leader sits at 63% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 43%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
43¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xc4dd63…8eeb
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xf0d816…e509
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-2.5)
0x198a70…c331
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5)
0x252a64…9369
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CD Cuenca (-1.5)
0x671eed…0707
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x2dbc76…988c
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8d5ad4…be44
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xa69c04…1624
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CD Cuenca (-2.5)
0x0ba8c8…aa51
Analysis
This market reflects a 27% probability that CA San Lorenzo de Almagro will win by 1.5 or more goals against CD Cuenca. The probability is driven by San Lorenzo's typical league standing and form relative to Cuenca's defensive or offensive metrics. Key factors affecting this level include San Lorenzo's recent performance trajectory, Cuenca's home-field advantage, head-to-head historical matchups, and current squad availability. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled game date, which resolves all uncertainty. The cross-venue consistency (1 percentage point gap) suggests relatively stable market pricing across major platforms, though minimal trading volume in related contracts indicates limited recent interest in this specific fixture.
- ›San Lorenzo's league position and recent win/loss record versus Cuenca's defensive record and goals conceded
- ›Cuenca's home-field advantage and historical performance in this fixture (if applicable)
- ›Squad availability, injuries, or suspensions affecting either team's attacking or defensive capacity
- ›The match's geographic and travel context (altitude, distance) if playing in Ecuador
- ›Relative league strength and historical scoring patterns between the two teams' respective competitions
What moved the line
- May 3CD Cuenca (-1.5)↑6pp18→24¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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