CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CD Cuenca (-2.5)
Leader sits at 63% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 43%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
43¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xc4dd63…8eeb
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xf0d816…e509
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-2.5)
0x198a70…c331
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5)
0x252a64…9369
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CD Cuenca (-1.5)
0x671eed…0707
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x2dbc76…988c
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8d5ad4…be44
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xa69c04…1624
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CD Cuenca (-2.5)
0x0ba8c8…aa51
Analysis
This market reflects a 27% probability that CD Cuenca will win by 3 or more goals against CA San Lorenzo de Almagro. The low probability suggests markets expect either a close result or a San Lorenzo victory. The assessment reflects relative team strength, home-field advantage (Cuenca plays in Ecuador at high altitude, a historical factor favoring local teams), and recent form. The match outcome will be determined by the final score on the scheduled game date. Key variables include whether Cuenca can leverage home conditions and whether San Lorenzo can neutralize Cuenca's attacking threat. Trading volume remains minimal across both venues ($0 in recent 24-hour activity on related contracts), indicating low market conviction and potentially wider spreads.
- ›CD Cuenca home-field advantage at high altitude in Quito (2,850m) historically favors Ecuadorian clubs in South American competition
- ›CA San Lorenzo de Almagro's defensive record and goal differential in recent matches relative to Cuenca's scoring output
- ›Current head-to-head historical matchup record and performance in Copa Sudamericana or Copa CONMEBOL contexts
- ›Minimal trading volume ($0 24h) on this contract suggests low liquidity and potential for wide bid-ask spreads
- ›Kalshi and Polymarket pricing converges at 27-28%, reducing cross-venue arbitrage opportunity
What moved the line
- May 3CD Cuenca (-1.5)↑6pp18→24¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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