Club Alianza Atlético vs. CS Huancayo
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 49%, Polymarket at 29% — a 20pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
29%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
20pp
wide divergence
24h move
−1pp
13h ago
24h volume
$1K
19 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 49¢ · Polymarket 29¢ · 20pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (29¢, 17 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (49¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali” vs “National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali: Club Alianza Atlético
0xe3443c…fce3
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali: Draw (Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali)
0x3adc15…5289
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xf11ea2…4b49
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xfab9ac…a061
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x823331…d919
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x80dc4f…a83e
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5)
0xef168a…e777
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: Club Alianza Atlético (-1.5)
0x3f6143…9432
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali: América de Cali
0x434862…9046
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: América de Cali (-1.5)
0x96b339…c2ac
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x5d229c…d749
Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali - More Markets: América de Cali (-2.5)
0x29a631…e20d
Cluster 2
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5)
0x5d63d2…892c
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5)
0x21ed5a…5e0d
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: Ismaily SC (-1.5)
0xaa1d2c…6cde
Cluster 3
Will Otakar Esports win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match
Cluster 4
Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús: CA Lanús
Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús: CA Lanús
0x4eec59…304b
Cluster 5
Will UCAM Esports Club win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match
Cluster 6
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 2.5
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6495f7…7b3b
Analysis
This 32% probability reflects market expectations for Club Alianza Atlético's performance in an upcoming match against CS Huancayo. The estimate sits between two venues with notably different assessments: Kalshi traders price the outcome at 44%, while Polymarket traders assess it at 30%, suggesting disagreement about underlying team strength or current form. The outcome will depend on team composition, recent performance records, and head-to-head history. Resolution occurs when the match concludes, likely within days to weeks based on typical scheduling for Peruvian football. The 14-percentage-point gap between venues indicates meaningful uncertainty that new information—such as injury reports, lineup confirmations, or recent match results—could shift significantly.
- ›Kalshi's 44% probability versus Polymarket's 30% reflects a 14-point venue divergence, suggesting traders disagree on the match's fundamental probability
- ›Polymarket's 17 contracts provide substantially higher trading volume and sample size than Kalshi's 3 contracts, potentially indicating different confidence levels in price discovery
- ›Recent performance data on both clubs' win rates, goal differentials, and head-to-head records would be primary drivers of whether this probability adjusts before match kickoff
- ›The listed top contracts span esports and other sports markets, indicating potential data feed issues or market segmentation that could affect accuracy of this specific football match
- ›Match timing and venue conditions remain unspecified in available contract data, limiting ability to assess whether current probability reflects favorable or unfavorable home-field factors
What moved the line
- May 3UCAM Esports Club↑48pp15→63¢ · Kalshi
- May 2UCAM Esports Club↑11pp4→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Otakar Esports↑8pp5→13¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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