Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028
Leader sits at 82% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 82%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Gavin Newsom
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
82¢
Pete Buttigieg
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
559 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Wes Moore
KX2028DRUN-28-WMOO
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
KX2028DRUN-28-AOC
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Mark Kelly
KX2028DRUN-28-MKEL
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Josh Shapiro
KX2028DRUN-28-JSHA
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Jared Polis
KX2028DRUN-28-JPOL
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gavin Newsom
KX2028DRUN-28-GNEW
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: John Fetterman
KX2028DRUN-28-JFET
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Elissa Slotkin
KX2028DRUN-28-ESLO
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Jon Ossoff
KX2028DRUN-28-JOSS
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Pete Buttigieg
KX2028DRUN-28-PBUT
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Chris Van Hollen
KX2028DRUN-28-CHOL
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gretchen Whitmer
KX2028DRUN-28-GWHI
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Stephen A. Smith
KX2028DRUN-28-SAS
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Dean Phillips
KX2028DRUN-28-DPHI
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Chris Murphy
KX2028DRUN-28-CMUR
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Cory Booker
KX2028DRUN-28-CBOOK
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Abigail Spanberger
KX2028DRUN-28-ASPA
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Andy Beshear
KX2028DRUN-28-ABES
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Michelle Obama
KX2028DRUN-28-MOBA
Analysis
This contract reflects market expectations that Gavin Newsom will seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, currently priced at 86%. The high probability reflects Newsom's visibility as California's governor, his national profile, and minimal public indication he would decline to run. The probability could shift downward if Newsom withdraws from politics, faces significant legal or political setbacks, or announces intentions to pursue other offices. The main uncertainty stems from typical pre-campaign uncertainty—politicians frequently signal different intentions closer to actual nomination periods. Key catalysts include statements from Newsom himself regarding 2028, major developments in his governorship that could affect his viability, and consolidation patterns among other Democratic candidates that might influence his calculus about running.
- ›Newsom has maintained national political visibility through 2024-2026 without withdrawing from consideration for higher office
- ›The 83% runner-up probability indicates significant market uncertainty about who the second-most-likely candidate is, suggesting no consensus alternative has emerged
- ›Harris at 55¢ reflects incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris's potential candidacy, representing the highest individual alternative contract price
- ›No formal candidate announcements or explicit rejections from Newsom have been documented that would typically precede a significant probability shift
- ›Historical patterns show most sitting governors who maintain national profiles and avoid disqualifying events tend to enter presidential races in open primaries
What moved the line
- Jun 17Jon Ossoff↑11pp43→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez↑7pp48→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Jon Ossoff↑7pp54→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez↓5pp54→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Cory Booker↑5pp62→67¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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