Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that California Governor Gavin Newsom has an 82% probability of running for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. The high likelihood reflects his current position as a prominent Democratic governor without declared disqualifying factors, though the outcome remains uncertain pending political developments over the next 18+ months. The probability could shift based on changes in Newsom's stated political intentions, major shifts in Democratic Party dynamics, or unexpected personal or professional circumstances. The 2028 Democratic National Convention and any earlier announcements by major party figures will ultimately determine whether this contract resolves affirmatively. Other potential candidates like J.B. Pritzker (74%) and Cory Booker (65%) show measurably lower probabilities, suggesting market participants view Newsom as the leading candidate to enter the race among those listed.

• ›Newsom's public statements and explicit declarations regarding 2028 candidacy will be the primary resolution mechanism
• ›Democratic Party power dynamics and endorsement patterns could shift incentives or viability for any major candidate between now and 2028
• ›Unexpected political or personal developments affecting Newsom's career trajectory or availability could materially alter the probability
• ›Competition or crowding in the Democratic field—including whether other high-probability candidates actually run—affects individual candidate likelihood
• ›Historical patterns show that early 2026-era polling of presidential intentions often diverges substantially from actual 2028 behavior

What moved the line

• Sep 17Kamala Harris↓22pp80→58¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Josh Shapiro↓21pp78→57¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Josh Shapiro↑18pp57→75¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Gavin Newsom↓17pp85→68¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Stephen A. Smith↑10pp9→19¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in election 2026

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds