Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that California Governor Gavin Newsom has an 82% probability of running for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. The high likelihood reflects his current position as a prominent Democratic governor without declared disqualifying factors, though the outcome remains uncertain pending political developments over the next 18+ months. The probability could shift based on changes in Newsom's stated political intentions, major shifts in Democratic Party dynamics, or unexpected personal or professional circumstances. The 2028 Democratic National Convention and any earlier announcements by major party figures will ultimately determine whether this contract resolves affirmatively. Other potential candidates like J.B. Pritzker (74%) and Cory Booker (65%) show measurably lower probabilities, suggesting market participants view Newsom as the leading candidate to enter the race among those listed.

• ›Newsom's public statements and explicit declarations regarding 2028 candidacy will be the primary resolution mechanism
• ›Democratic Party power dynamics and endorsement patterns could shift incentives or viability for any major candidate between now and 2028
• ›Unexpected political or personal developments affecting Newsom's career trajectory or availability could materially alter the probability
• ›Competition or crowding in the Democratic field—including whether other high-probability candidates actually run—affects individual candidate likelihood
• ›Historical patterns show that early 2026-era polling of presidential intentions often diverges substantially from actual 2028 behavior

What moved the line

• Aug 4Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez↓7pp68→61¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 31Ruben Gallego↑3pp27→30¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 2Mark Kelly↓3pp69→66¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in election 2026

• Will Martell D Bivings be the Republican nominee for MI-13last 96% · 0d
• Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 6% and 9%last 3% · 0d
• Will Donald Trump endorse Nate Morris in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary before May 19, 2026last 3% · 0d
• Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Jul 19, 2026last 46% · 0d
• Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michiganlast 97% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds