Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year
Leader sits at 19% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Nathan MacKinnon
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Frederik Andersen
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$457
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 28, 2026
56 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Nathan MacKinnon
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-NMAC
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Frederik Andersen
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-FAND
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Scott Wedgewood
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-SWED
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Kirill Kaprizov
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-KKAP
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Cole Caufield
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-CCAU
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Jake Oettinger
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-JOET
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Mikko Rantanen
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-MRAN
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Cale Makar
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-CMAK
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Tage Thompson
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-TTHO
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Nick Suzuki
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-NSUZ
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Nikita Kucherov
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-KKUC
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Leon Draisaitl
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-LDRA
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Jack Eichel
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-JEIC
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Sebastian Aho
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-SAHO
Analysis
The 40% probability indicates that one particular team is currently favored to win the Stanley Cup, but faces substantial competition from other contenders. This represents the market's assessment based on team roster strength, playoff performance to date, and injury status heading into the final stretch of the 2025-26 regular season. The probability could shift significantly based on late-season acquisitions at the trade deadline, key player injuries, or early playoff performance. The Stanley Cup Finals in June will ultimately resolve this outcome, with each playoff round between now and then providing new information about team momentum and performance under playoff conditions.
- ›Current team health status and any significant injuries to star players or goaltenders
- ›Trade deadline activity in early March and how teams bolster their rosters for playoff runs
- ›Head-to-head playoff performance in the first two rounds, which typically reshapes market expectations
- ›Strength of schedule in the remaining regular season games and playoff seeding implications
- ›Historical playoff success and experience of coaching staff and veteran players on the favored team
What moved the line
- May 1Kirill Kaprizov↑10pp5→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Kirill Kaprizov↓7pp15→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Frederik Andersen↑5pp3→8¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Leon Draisaitl↑5pp3→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Nikita Kucherov↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.