CS Cienciano vs. CA Mineiro: CS Cienciano
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 23%, Polymarket at 31% — a 8pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
1 contract
Polymarket
31%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
8pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
May 20, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 23¢ · Polymarket 31¢ · 8pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (23¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (31¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Academia Puerto Cabello vs” vs “CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Academia Puerto Cabello vs
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano: CS Cienciano
0x1b0f42…ce64
Academia Puerto Cabello vs Cienciano Winner?: Cienciano
KXCONMEBOLSUDGAME-26MAY05APCCIE-CIE
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Academia Puerto Cabello (-1.5)
0x4a1204…15f7
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x376086…86e3
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xcdb8fe…44e4
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x4a9cea…f5f4
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5)
0xfe442e…dd9c
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: CS Cienciano (-2.5)
0xd9e4b9…54cc
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano: Draw (Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano)
0x5148d0…bf9f
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: CS Cienciano (-1.5)
0x9c8878…2195
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano: Academia Puerto Cabello
0xe3e33b…3545
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xc7befb…da6f
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CS Cienciano - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x57efa3…fc4b
Cluster 2
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x8ee9ee…0daa
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8d75f4…344f
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x1768e0…f921
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xe6b23a…29ea
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets: CA Mineiro (-1.5)
0x77f6aa…9275
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets: CA Mineiro (-2.5)
0x414244…122c
CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets: CA Juventud (-1.5)
0x3602f0…04da
What moved the line
- May 3Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5)↑10pp13→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 3CS Cienciano (-2.5)↑8pp11→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 3O/U 4.5↓5pp18→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Both Teams to Score↑4pp50→54¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.