CS Cristal vs. Cusco FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 18 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
31%
18 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+3pp
11h ago
24h volume
$204
18 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets” vs “CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xc3eb9b…d2bb
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x21404a…1e39
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x5a357f…e2d8
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5)
0xedbf98…a9d2
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: Cusco FC (-2.5)
0x8b94a2…391e
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: Estudiantes de La Plata (-2.5)
0xb7999b…5ff6
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xa6a158…2cf5
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x85655c…e0c8
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: Cusco FC (-1.5)
0x413b32…a054
Cluster 2
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x53c14f…56ac
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: CS Cristal (-1.5)
0xfaa9e3…cc5a
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)
0x56031e…4746
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6c1549…222e
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xddd281…3d6c
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x7b3618…b693
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x8b5451…a1df
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)
0x32804c…2971
Cluster 3
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)
0x879d11…150c
Analysis
This market reflects a 28% probability that CS Cristal versus Cusco FC will generate additional trading markets beyond those already established. The current pricing suggests participants believe the matchup has moderate but not high likelihood of attracting supplementary betting interest. Volume across related contracts remains light, with most top-correlated markets showing under $310 in 24-hour activity, indicating limited trader conviction either direction. The resolution depends on whether market operators determine sufficient demand exists to expand the contract offerings. Key factors include the teams' league status, expected match attendance and media coverage, and typical market expansion patterns for similar regional fixtures. As the match approaches, clearer information about fan interest and betting demand will either validate or challenge the current probability estimate.
- ›Historical frequency of market expansion for Peruvian league matches of this competitive tier and regional prominence
- ›Current trading volume on existing CS Cristal and Cusco FC contracts as a proxy for underlying audience size
- ›Whether either team qualifies for playoff or championship-deciding scenarios that typically trigger additional derivative markets
- ›Geographic and temporal alignment with peak betting windows in target markets
- ›Comparative market depth for similar matchups in the same league over the past 90 days
What moved the line
- May 3CS Cristal (-1.5)↑8pp11→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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