CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC
Leader sits at 36% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Fluminense FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
CS Independiente Rivadavia
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$10
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC: Fluminense FC
0xdf1c56…de24
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC: CS Independiente Rivadavia
0xa11f14…34a6
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC: Draw (CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC)
0x3a3edf…49b6
Analysis
This probability reflects a prediction that Fluminense FC has a 36% chance of winning an upcoming match against CS Independiente Rivadavia. The market prices Fluminense as a meaningful favorite with 36% odds, while a draw is priced at 30% and Rivadavia at approximately 34%, suggesting no outcome is overwhelmingly likely. The implied probabilities reflect both teams' recent form, historical head-to-head records, and home-field considerations. Resolution will occur upon match completion, with actual game outcome determining payouts. Trading volume on this contract remains low, which can mean less refined probability estimation due to limited market participation and potential wider bid-ask spreads.
- ›Fluminense's recent league performance and winning percentage versus Rivadavia's current form
- ›Home or away status and stadium advantage for each team in this fixture
- ›Head-to-head historical results between these specific clubs
- ›Injury status or roster changes for either team prior to kickoff
- ›The 30% draw probability suggests meaningful uncertainty in expected match outcome
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.