What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call
Leader sits at 91% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Competition
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
Subscriber
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
150 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: WWE
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-WWE
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: OpenAI / Sora
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-OPEN
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Fortnite
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-FORT
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: NFL
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-NFL
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Buyback
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-BUYB
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Grogu
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-GROG
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: YouTube TV
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-YOUT
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Trump
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-TRUM
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Weather
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-WEAT
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Warner Bros. / Warner Brothers
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-WARN
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Acquisition
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-ACQU
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Kimmel
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-KIMM
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Abu Dhabi
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-ABU
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Cruise
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-CRUI
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Subscriber
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-SUBS
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Competition
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-COMP
Analysis
This represents the probability that Disney will mention OpenAI or Sora during their next earnings call. The 46% probability sits near neutral, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about whether AI and generative technology will come up prominently enough in their earnings discussion to trigger this contract. Disney's leadership typically discusses forward-looking technology initiatives when they represent material business opportunities or competitive concerns. The resolution depends on both Disney's strategic priorities and the specific language used by executives during the call. The uncertainty will clear when Disney hosts their next earnings call—currently scheduled within their typical quarterly reporting cycle. Key drivers include whether Disney has announced significant AI partnerships by then, competitive pressure from streaming rivals adopting generative technology, and general executive commentary on technology investments.
- ›Disney's next earnings call date and whether company executives proactively address generative AI or Sora in prepared remarks or Q&A
- ›Whether Disney has announced specific AI partnerships, integrations, or product initiatives involving OpenAI or similar technology by call date
- ›Recent competitive developments in streaming and entertainment that might prompt AI discussion as a strategic differentiator or risk factor
- ›Historical frequency of Disney earnings calls mentioning emerging AI technology in previous quarters
- ›The specificity required for contract resolution—whether casual mention suffices or substantial discussion is needed to trigger the 'OpenAI/Sora' outcome
What moved the line
- Apr 29YouTube TV↑19pp6→25¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Fortnite↑18pp6→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 2NFL↑16pp56→72¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Buyback↑14pp21→35¢ · Kalshi
- May 3WWE↑11pp20→31¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.