SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 16 outcomes16 contractsKalshirefreshed 5 min agoCloses Sep 30, 2026 · 150d45pp · 12h

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call

Leader sits at 91% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

91%

Competition

runner-up 91¢leader 91¢

Outcomes

16

winner-take-all

Runner-up

91¢

Subscriber

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$1K

modest

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

150 days

Venue

Kalshi

16 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayCompetition: 92% (5 days, 3 points)Competition: 92% on 2026-04-30Subscriber: 88% (5 days, 4 points)Subscriber: 88% on 2026-05-03Cruise: 91% (5 days, 3 points)Cruise: 91% on 2026-05-01
Competition92¢Subscriber88¢Cruise91¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 5d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call

16 contracts$1K
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: WWE

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-WWE

39¢+11pp$222K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: OpenAI / Sora

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-OPEN

51¢1pp$165K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Fortnite

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-FORT

24¢1pp$156K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: NFL

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-NFL

81¢+4pp$119K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Buyback

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-BUYB

23¢9pp$89K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Grogu

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-GROG

73¢+2pp$58K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: YouTube TV

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-YOUT

9¢7pp$49K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Trump

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-TRUM

15¢+1pp$35K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Weather

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-WEAT

13¢+1pp$35K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Warner Bros. / Warner Brothers

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-WARN

47¢1pp$34K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Acquisition

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-ACQU

46¢1pp$31K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Kimmel

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-KIMM

14¢±0$18K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Abu Dhabi

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-ABU

62¢+3pp$0K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Cruise

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-CRUI

91¢+3pp$0K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Subscriber

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-SUBS

91¢2pp$0K

What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Competition

KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-COMP

91¢+1pp$0K

Analysis

This represents the probability that Disney will mention OpenAI or Sora during their next earnings call. The 46% probability sits near neutral, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about whether AI and generative technology will come up prominently enough in their earnings discussion to trigger this contract. Disney's leadership typically discusses forward-looking technology initiatives when they represent material business opportunities or competitive concerns. The resolution depends on both Disney's strategic priorities and the specific language used by executives during the call. The uncertainty will clear when Disney hosts their next earnings call—currently scheduled within their typical quarterly reporting cycle. Key drivers include whether Disney has announced significant AI partnerships by then, competitive pressure from streaming rivals adopting generative technology, and general executive commentary on technology investments.

  • Disney's next earnings call date and whether company executives proactively address generative AI or Sora in prepared remarks or Q&A
  • Whether Disney has announced specific AI partnerships, integrations, or product initiatives involving OpenAI or similar technology by call date
  • Recent competitive developments in streaming and entertainment that might prompt AI discussion as a strategic differentiator or risk factor
  • Historical frequency of Disney earnings calls mentioning emerging AI technology in previous quarters
  • The specificity required for contract resolution—whether casual mention suffices or substantial discussion is needed to trigger the 'OpenAI/Sora' outcome

What moved the line

  • Apr 29YouTube TV19pp625¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 29Fortnite18pp624¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2NFL16pp5672¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 29Buyback14pp2135¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3WWE11pp2031¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.