El Mokawloon El Arab SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
31%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−5pp
12h ago
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
May 7, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC” vs “Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: Tala'ea El Gaish SC
0xf309d5…6b6b
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xbba7de…c1f0
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5)
0xc72274…aff4
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: Ghazl El Mahalla SC
0x052b58…a59e
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: Draw (Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC)
0x0fc637…0787
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x5e259b…9efe
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xf2f172…fbe5
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x7b51f5…9166
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x288ff0…3634
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Ghazl El Mahalla SC (-1.5)
0x38d77b…87c4
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC - More Markets: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-1.5)
0xcfd8ae…56c9
Cluster 2
Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC
Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xeef4d7…eca0
Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC: Draw (Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC)
0x568aa4…4817
Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC - More Markets: El Mokawloon El Arab SC (-2.5)
0x94b962…3ad3
Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC - More Markets: Pharco FC (-2.5)
0x85c5f5…f158
Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC - More Markets: El Mokawloon El Arab SC (-1.5)
0xec25e2…60ac
Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xd79ae9…8d45
Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC: Pharco FC
0x30ab64…15fd
Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC: El Mokawloon El Arab SC
0x44181c…4216
Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x90b83a…48f0
Analysis
This 36% probability reflects market expectations that El Mokawloon El Arab SC will defeat Ghazl El Mahalla SC in an Egyptian football match. The price sits between the frontrunner (36%) and second-place outcome (34%), indicating genuine uncertainty rather than a clear consensus. Market movement would likely depend on team form, injuries to key players, and recent head-to-head records. The underlying contracts show low trading volume, suggesting limited liquidity and fewer active participants pricing this matchup, which typically increases forecast uncertainty. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and the final result is recorded.
- ›El Mokawloon El Arab SC's recent domestic performance and current league standing relative to Ghazl El Mahalla SC
- ›Availability and fitness status of key players for both teams ahead of the scheduled fixture
- ›Historical head-to-head results between these two clubs and goal-scoring patterns
- ›The low 24-hour trading volume ($0 reported across top contracts) indicates sparse price discovery and may amplify swings from new information
- ›Whether either team has competing fixtures or fixture congestion that could affect squad selection or player availability
What moved the line
- May 2O/U 4.5↓5pp13→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Pharco FC↑5pp24→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 3El Mokawloon El Arab SC (-2.5)↓5pp9→4¢ · Polymarket
- May 2El Mokawloon El Arab SC (-2.5)↓4pp13→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Draw (Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC)↑4pp31→35¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.