Everton at West Ham
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 53% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
53%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$483K
14 contracts
Closes
Jun 29, 2028
788 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Tottenham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over” vs “Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Tottenham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over
Tottenham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY03AVLTOT-2
Tottenham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY03AVLTOT-1
Tottenham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY03AVLTOT-3
Tottenham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY03AVLTOT-4
Cluster 2
Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over
Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY03MUNLFC-4
Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY03MUNLFC-3
Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY03MUNLFC-2
Cluster 3
Chelsea at Liverpool: Totals: Over
Cluster 4
Crystal Palace at Bournemouth: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
Crystal Palace at Bournemouth: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY03BOUCRY-3
Cluster 5
Manchester City at Everton: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
Manchester City at Everton: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY04EVEMCI-2
Cluster 6
Nottingham at Chelsea: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
Nottingham at Chelsea: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY04CFCNFO-1
Cluster 7
Arsenal at West Ham: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
Arsenal at West Ham: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY10WHUARS-2
Cluster 8
Manchester United at Sunderland: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
Manchester United at Sunderland: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXEPLTOTAL-26MAY09SUNMUN-4
Analysis
This 22% probability reflects the market's assessment that Everton will defeat West Ham in an upcoming match. The relatively low probability suggests traders view West Ham as favored or the match outcome as closely contested. Movement in this probability would depend on team form, injury status, and betting line shifts in traditional sportsbooks. The match result itself will resolve this contract when the fixture is played, likely within the next week or two based on typical Premier League scheduling. Key considerations include each team's recent performance, head-to-head record, home-field advantage, and any late-breaking roster changes.
- ›Everton's position in the league table and recent win-loss record relative to West Ham's current form
- ›Injury or suspension status of key players for either team ahead of kickoff
- ›Historical head-to-head performance between these sides, including home and away records
- ›Traditional sportsbook odds for the match and any significant line movement
- ›Whether the match is played at West Ham's or Everton's home ground, as home advantage affects outcome probability
What moved the line
- Apr 26Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↓44pp54→10¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑43pp15→58¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑41pp10→51¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑34pp41→75¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↓33pp48→15¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.