SimpleFunctions
14 contractsKalshirefreshed 10 min agoCloses Jun 29, 2028 · 788d

Everton at West Ham

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 53% across 14 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

53%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

53%

14 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$483K

14 contracts

Closes

Jun 29, 2028

788 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 37% (13 days, 13 points)Aggregate: 37% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 14 contracts · 13d

Bracket families

8 clusters across 14 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Tottenham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over” vs “Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Tottenham at Aston Villa: Totals: Over

4 contracts$15K

Cluster 2

Liverpool at Manchester United: Totals: Over

3 contracts$390K

Cluster 3

Chelsea at Liverpool: Totals: Over

2 contracts$4

Cluster 4

Crystal Palace at Bournemouth: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored

1 contract$78K

Cluster 5

Manchester City at Everton: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored

1 contract$554

Cluster 6

Nottingham at Chelsea: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored

1 contract$2

Cluster 7

Arsenal at West Ham: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Manchester United at Sunderland: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored

1 contract$0

Analysis

This 22% probability reflects the market's assessment that Everton will defeat West Ham in an upcoming match. The relatively low probability suggests traders view West Ham as favored or the match outcome as closely contested. Movement in this probability would depend on team form, injury status, and betting line shifts in traditional sportsbooks. The match result itself will resolve this contract when the fixture is played, likely within the next week or two based on typical Premier League scheduling. Key considerations include each team's recent performance, head-to-head record, home-field advantage, and any late-breaking roster changes.

  • Everton's position in the league table and recent win-loss record relative to West Ham's current form
  • Injury or suspension status of key players for either team ahead of kickoff
  • Historical head-to-head performance between these sides, including home and away records
  • Traditional sportsbook odds for the match and any significant line movement
  • Whether the match is played at West Ham's or Everton's home ground, as home advantage affects outcome probability

What moved the line

  • Apr 26Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored44pp5410¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored43pp1558¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored41pp1051¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 27Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored34pp4175¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 26Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored33pp4815¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.