Will Coco Gauff win the French Open

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Coco Gauff will win the 2026 French Open tennis tournament, currently estimated at 13%. Gauff competes in a field dominated by top-ranked players: Jannik Sinner is priced at 65%, while Iga Swiatek holds 21%, suggesting traders view her as a mid-tier contender rather than a favorite. The 4-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (13%) and Polymarket (9%) indicates modest disagreement on her odds. Gauff's probability would rise with strong performances at preceding tournaments or improved clay-court results, and fall if higher-ranked opponents display superior form. The French Open tournament itself, scheduled for late May 2026, will resolve this contract. Current pricing implies roughly 1-in-8 odds for Gauff, positioning her below Swiatek but above players like Zverev and Djokovic in the market's hierarchy.

• ›Gauff's 13% implied odds rank below Swiatek (21%) and well below Sinner (65%), suggesting traders view her as unlikely to win despite her career achievements
• ›Kalshi volumes significantly exceed Polymarket on this outcome ($6,854 in 24h volume), with the 4pp spread indicating room for disagreement on her true probability
• ›Pre-tournament performance on clay courts between now and late May 2026 will provide concrete data on form and fitness that could shift market pricing
• ›Recent head-to-head records and ranking fluctuations against top contenders directly inform whether traders adjust the 13% estimate upward or downward
• ›The tournament date in late May 2026 serves as the hard deadline for resolution, making near-term clay performances the primary catalyst for probability movement

What moved the line

• Apr 27Iga Swiatek↓6pp20→14¢ · Kalshi
• May 1Iga Swiatek↑4pp13→17¢ · Kalshi
• Apr 29Elena Rybakina↓4pp16→12¢ · Kalshi
• Apr 30Iga Swiatek↓3pp16→13¢ · Kalshi
• Apr 27Elena Rybakina↑3pp13→16¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds