GA-05 Democratic Primary Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
6%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−31pp
6h ago
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 19, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
GA-05 Democratic Primary Winner: Arnetress Beatty
GA-05 Democratic Primary Winner: Arnetress Beatty
0x4b0c6f…fcdc
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that a Democratic candidate will win Georgia's 5th Congressional District primary election. The 37% level suggests meaningful uncertainty about the race outcome, influenced by candidate name recognition, campaign fundraising totals, and endorsement patterns among the Democratic field. The primary election date will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this market, as it will determine which candidate advances to the general election. Until then, factors like candidate debate performance, polling data releases, and donor activity will likely shift probabilities as new information emerges about voter preferences in this district.
- ›Total fundraising and cash-on-hand figures for Democratic primary candidates in GA-05
- ›Public polling data showing relative support levels among registered Democrats in the district
- ›Endorsement patterns from established Democratic figures and organizations in Georgia
- ›Voter turnout rates in previous Democratic primaries within GA-05 compared to current cycle trends
- ›Candidate debate performances and media coverage volume in the weeks leading up to the primary election date
What moved the line
- Apr 28Arnetress Beatty↑11pp1→12¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Arnetress Beatty↓4pp12→8¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Arnetress Beatty↓3pp8→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Arnetress Beatty↑3pp5→8¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 h ago.