Oregon Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
29%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
20 contracts
Closes
May 19, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Marquita Bradshaw
0x253a4a…35ba
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Maria Brewer
0x643a95…018d
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Diana Onyeijaka
0x9d34dd…75ed
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Civil Miller-Watkins
0xba0b63…49f3
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Kevin Lee McCants
0x69a253…7c59
Cluster 2
Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner
Cluster 3
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Cluster 4
Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Cluster 5
West Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Cluster 6
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Cluster 7
Iowa Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Zach Wahls
Iowa Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Zach Wahls
0x74e889…eec8
Cluster 8
South Carolina Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Annie Andrews
South Carolina Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Annie Andrews
0xd81615…a963
Cluster 9
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Jim Priest
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Jim Priest
0xac50f5…c7ba
What moved the line
- Apr 28Sandy Spidel Neumann↑14pp13→27¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26Zach Wahls↓13pp64→51¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Zach Wahls↓12pp47→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Sandy Spidel Neumann↓12pp17→5¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Mark Wheeler↑11pp3→14¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.