2026 Elections Prediction Market Odds
Sorensen Gains Ground in IL-17 as Midterm Rally Expectations Shift
Active markets
12
Avg probability
53%
24h volume
$378K
Questions tracked
40
Key Moves
Dominant swing toward Democratic retention of a critical district
Increased confidence in high-frequency campaigning for the 2026 cycle
Unexpected erosion of GOP incumbency advantage in Florida
Correction in Democratic win probability despite maintaining lead
Market near-abandonment of GOP prospects in this specific Michigan contest
Key Markets
Specific odds in this topic
32 more questions · browse all
Analysis
Democratic incumbent Eric Sorensen saw a massive probability spike in the IL-17 race, suggesting a consolidation of support, while volatility hit Trump campaign activity forecasts. Market movements reflect a recalibration of competitiveness in key swing districts and shifting expectations for Republican mobilization efforts.
What to watch: Monitor potential polling releases in IL-17 and FL-13 to see if these sharp price adjustments represent insider sentiment or speculative volatility.
Dispatches
2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored for the House, Senate a Toss-up
The 2026 midterm election market is vibrant, with Democrats heavily favored to retake the House (84¢) but the Senate control is a coin flip (47¢ D vs 52¢ R). Key state-level races like Michigan Senate (D 62¢) and Georgia Senate (D 92¢) show Democratic strength. This divergence between House and Senate expectations creates interesting spread-trading opportunities between the two chambers.
2026 Senate Control Hinges on a Knife's Edge — Republicans at 52¢
The 2026 Senate control contract (CONTROLS-2026) is the most liquid election market across all platforms, with GOP control priced at 52¢ vs. Democrats at 48¢. Key battleground states like Ohio (51¢ D), Michigan (57¢ D), and Texas (50¢ R) are aligning with the national narrative of a highly competitive map.
Byron Donalds Heavy Favorite to Win Florida GOP Gubernatorial Primary
Florida gubernatorial primary markets show Byron Donalds at 99% probability on massive volume, while James Fishback remains a long shot. The primary is effectively a formality, but general election positioning is still fluid.
Byron Donalds dominates Florida GOP primary market at 98¢
Byron Donalds is heavily favored to win the Florida GOP gubernatorial nomination, priced at 98¢ with massive volume. The Republican primary is effectively decided according to prediction markets, with Donalds commanding near-certain odds.
Florida Governor Primary Narrows as Byron Donalds Consolidates Lead
Byron Donalds' probability to win the Republican nomination surged to 97¢ on 605k volume, while James Fishback dropped to 2¢. Jay Collins and other candidates are negligible. The race is effectively over, but markets on margin of victory remain active.
Election 2026: Battle for Congress Takes Shape
Control of the House and Senate is the dominant election theme. Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House (85¢), while the Senate is a true toss-up. Key primaries, especially in Wisconsin, are generating enormous volume.
Election 2026 markets see massive volume on long-shot presidential nominee
Abdul El-Sayed as 2028 Democratic nominee has 1.3 million volume at 1¢ – an extreme outlier. Meanwhile, Democratic House control trades at 84¢ with 755k volume. Traders should monitor these for sentiment shifts as midterms approach.
Election 2026 Markets Active; Florida Primary and Senate Control Key
Election 2026 markets dominate the prediction landscape. Florida Governor primary has over 2 million combined volume. Senate control is tight (R 53¢), House leans Democratic (83¢). South Carolina special primary sees tight three-way race.
2026 Midterm Primaries Take Center Stage with High-Volume Bets
The Florida GOP gubernatorial primary and Michigan Senate race dominate trading, with massive volumes on contracts like Byron Donalds' nomination and the Senate margin of victory. These markets are setting expectations for the broader 2026 electoral landscape.
Michigan Senate Primary Dominates Prediction Markets with Record 13.6M Volume
The Michigan Democratic Senate primary is the most actively traded political market in the dataset, with a single contract seeing over 13.6 million in volume. Abdul El-Sayed is the heavy favorite at 97¢ to be the Democratic nominee. The market is crowded with dozens of sub-markets on margin of victory, vote share, and place finishes, representing one of the deepest event-driven trading opportunities available.
Trending today
Kerala Legislative Assembly election (2026)
event
UDF refers to the United Democratic Front, a political alliance in Kerala. The trending query combined with news headlines about election results and vote counting indicates this is about the 2026 Kerala state legislative elections. This is a specific political event occurring on a particular date with measurable results.
Full House
other
American television sitcom (1987–1995)
Alameda County and Oakland primary elections (June 2026)
event
The query references election results in a specific county and city for a specific date (June 2026). Multiple news sources confirm this is a particular electoral event. While the query mentions 'Alameda County election results,' the canonical name should reflect that this is the June 2026 primary election occurring in both Alameda County and Oakland, as evidenced by the news headlines referencing both the county results and the California governor primary context.
Also Tracking
npm i -g @spfunctions/cli && sf query "election-2026"