2026 Elections Prediction Market Odds
Trump Influence Spikes in Corporate Guidance Markets While International Livestream Odds Fade
Active markets
12
Avg probability
52%
24h volume
$307K
Questions tracked
40
Key Moves
Traders increasingly expect political policy to be central to semiconductor corporate strategy
Rapid cooling of expectations for South American foreign policy focus in the near term
Stable but slightly declining confidence in defense-related rhetoric during executive addresses
Niche electoral interest in satirical candidates remains resilient despite broader market volatility
Key Markets
Specific odds in this topic
32 more questions · browse all
Analysis
Intel earnings markets saw an 11% surge in 'Trump' mentions as traders pivot toward election-centric corporate narratives. Conversely, expectations for specific geopolitical mentions like 'Venezuela' and 'NATO' in upcoming White House livestreams dropped sharply, reflecting shifting priorities in executive communication.
What to watch: Monitor the next 52 newly listed contracts for signs of high-concentration liquidity in swing-state legislative races.
Dispatches
Democrats Heavy House Favorites as Senate Battle Tightens
2026 midterm election markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House at 82¢, while the Senate race is a toss-up with Republicans at 55¢. Key swing states: Michigan Senate leans Democratic (69¢), Maine Senate leans Democratic (63¢), and Texas Senate leans Republican (57¢). The Florida gubernatorial primary is a done deal for Byron Donalds at 96¢.
Graham Platner Dominates Maine Senate Race Markets as Democrats' Best Hope
The Maine Senate race has become the most heavily traded individual election contract, with Graham Platner's dropout probability at just 8% (92¢ that he stays in). Democrats are slight favorites at 59¢, and the outcome is seen as a key battleground for Senate control (Republicans 57¢ to win the chamber).
Election 2026: Democrats Lead House Odds (81¢), Senate Tighter
Democrats are now heavy favorites to win the House (81¢) while Republicans hold the edge for Senate (59¢). 2028 nomination markets show J.D. Vance and Gavin Newsom as early frontrunners.
Midterm Control Markets Active: Senate Tossup, House Leans Democratic
Republicans hold a 60¢ advantage in the Senate control market, while Democrats are favored to win the House at 81¢. Key battleground races like Texas (58¢ R), Maine (51¢ D), and Georgia (53¢ R for Governor) show tight margins. The combination market shows a 39¢ chance of unified Democratic control, reflecting genuine uncertainty.
2026 Primary Season Ignites – Key Races Already Priced Near Certainty
The CO-01 Democratic primary is effectively decided with Melat Kiros at 100¢ and 384k volume. The California governor primary shows Xavier Becerra at 99¢. Control of Congress is a major battleground: Democrats to win House at 81¢, Republicans to win Senate at 57¢. These markets offer early signals for general election positioning.
Democrats Favored to Retake House in 2026 Midterms
CONTROLH-2026-D trades at 80¢ with strong volume, signaling market confidence in a Democratic House majority. Key Senate races in Texas, Iowa, and Maine are also drawing attention.
Democrats Favored for House in 2026, But Senate Battle Tight
The 2026 midterm markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up. Primary season is heating up with key races in California, Florida, and Texas driving volume.
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
Democrats Priced at 78¢ to Win House in 2026, Heavy Primary Action
Democratic control of the House is priced at 78¢ (vs 21¢ Republican), with heavy primary volume in New York congressional races. The New York-10 Democratic primary is a standout, with Brad Lander at 98¢.
Trending today
Kerala Legislative Assembly election (2026)
event
UDF refers to the United Democratic Front, a political alliance in Kerala. The trending query combined with news headlines about election results and vote counting indicates this is about the 2026 Kerala state legislative elections. This is a specific political event occurring on a particular date with measurable results.
Full House
other
American television sitcom (1987–1995)
Alameda County and Oakland primary elections (June 2026)
event
The query references election results in a specific county and city for a specific date (June 2026). Multiple news sources confirm this is a particular electoral event. While the query mentions 'Alameda County election results,' the canonical name should reflect that this is the June 2026 primary election occurring in both Alameda County and Oakland, as evidenced by the news headlines referencing both the county results and the California governor primary context.
Also Tracking
npm i -g @spfunctions/cli && sf query "election-2026"