2026 Elections Prediction Market Odds

2026 Midterms: Democrats 85¢ for House, Texas Turning Purple

Democrats hold a commanding 85¢ price for House control while the Senate remains a toss-up; Texas shows surprising weakness with anti-tariff sentiment reshaping traditional Republican strongholds.

2026 House Race Tightens: Democrats slip 5¢, Republicans gain 3¢

Democratic odds to win the House fell 5¢ to 78¢ on Polymarket, while Republican odds rose 3¢ to 22¢ on Kalshi. The shift was driven by new polling showing improved Republican performance in swing districts. The generic ballot vote share is also tightening.

California Billionaire Wealth Tax Ballot Measure Surges +23¢ — Now 93¢ to Appear

The Polymarket contract for whether a one-time billionaire tax appears on the California 2026 ballot jumped an extraordinary +23¢ to 93¢ today, while the separate 'passes' contract jumped +10¢ to 48¢. This suggests the measure has cleared a major legal or signature-gathering threshold.

2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up

Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.

California Governor Race Reshuffles: Becerra Surges +14¢

Xavier Becerra jumped +14¢ to 42¢ in the California governor race on Polymarket today, representing a major single-day shift in a key 2026 election. Simultaneously, Tom Steyer dropped -9¢ to 34¢. The Virginia redistricting referendum remains near-consensus at 84-85¢ across both venues.

California Governor Race Reshuffles: Steyer -19¢, Becerra +13¢ in Single Session

Tom Steyer's California Governor odds collapsed 19 cents while Xavier Becerra surged 13 cents, suggesting fresh polling or political news dramatically reshuffled the Democratic primary field. The Kalshi primary markets show a close Becerra-Steyer race advancing to the general.

California Governor Race Jolted: Tom Steyer Drops 15 Cents in Single Session

The California 2026 governor race saw Tom Steyer's odds collapse 15 cents on Polymarket, one of the largest single-day moves in a major election market. The Kalshi contract still shows Steyer at 49¢, creating a significant cross-platform discrepancy that traders should investigate. California's governor race is shaping up as a competitive primary.

Peru Election Shock: Aliaga Surges as Sánchez Palomino Collapses

Peru's presidential election markets are experiencing one of the biggest single-day repricing events in the dataset. Rafael López Aliaga surged +16¢ to 35¢ for 2nd place in the first round, while Roberto Sánchez Palomino collapsed -11¢ to 18¢ as the overall winner market shifts dramatically.

Peru Presidential Election Live: Fujimori Leads First Round, Sánchez Palomino Surges to 2nd

Peru's presidential first round is being counted in real-time with massive price moves across all candidate markets. Keiko Fujimori holds at 62¢ to win outright while Roberto Sánchez Palomino surged +26¢ to 83¢ for 2nd place. Rafael López Aliaga dropped sharply from frontrunner expectations.

California Governor Race Consolidating Around Steyer as Key Mover

Tom Steyer jumped +10¢ to 65¢ on Polymarket for California Governor, while Kalshi shows KXGOVCA-26-TSTE at 65¢ as the frontrunner. The Republican party winning California is at just 11¢ on Kalshi. This market is worth watching as new polling or major endorsements appear to be moving it significantly today.