2026 Elections Prediction Market Odds

Democrats Priced for Historic Midterm Wave

Democrats are 88¢ to flip the House and 53¢ to take the Senate. A full Democratic sweep is at 52¢—the dominant scenario. Combined with Trump approval at 51¢ to hit 35%, traders are pricing in significant anti-incumbency sentiment.

Democrats 88% to Retake House: Blue Wave Building

Republicans have fallen to just 12% for House control in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip at 52D/49R. Trump's approval rating has a 50% chance of hitting 35% (up 9 points today). Combined with tariff-driven economic anxiety, prediction markets are pricing the most anti-incumbent midterm environment since 2018.

Starmer Crisis Deepens: 62% Chance He's Gone by September

Kalshi's Starmer departure market shows 62% by September, while Polymarket prices 56% by year-end. The UK political crisis is accelerating — a sitting PM with these departure odds is extraordinary. Combined with UK election called market at only 3%, markets expect a party leadership change rather than snap election.

2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored to Sweep House, Senate Razor Thin

Democrats at 86% to win the House and 52% for the Senate. The 'Democrats Sweep' parlay sits at 51%. Texas Senate is competitive at 44D/56R. Meanwhile, Texas governor race just saw a +9¢ Democratic swing. The anti-Trump wave thesis is strengthening.

2026 Midterms: Democrats Building a Wave — 86% for House, 51% for Democrat Sweep

Democrats are overwhelming favorites to take the House at 86% and a Democrat Sweep of both chambers is the single most likely midterm outcome at 51%. The Texas governor race saw a surprising 9¢ Democratic surge. With Trump's approval rating markets showing 36% chance of hitting 35%, the political environment is deteriorating rapidly for Republicans.

Democrats Heavily Favored to Take House — Midterm Positioning Begins

House control at 86¢ Democratic vs 14¢ Republican represents strong conviction, while Senate remains a true toss-up at 52/49. Democrats sweep at 51¢ vs split-R-Senate-D-House at 36¢ creates actionable spread trades. Texas Senate at 44¢ Democratic is the key battleground.

2026 Midterms: Democrats Poised for House Sweep, Senate a Coin Flip

Democrats are priced at 85¢ to win the House and 51¢ for the Senate. The 'Democrats Sweep' outcome leads at 51¢ in the Balance of Power market. Notably, Texas is seeing unexpected movement with the Senate race at 44¢ Democrat and the Governor race shifting +9¢ toward Democrats. Trump's approval could fall below 35% (36¢ probability).

2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Texas Emerging as Battleground

Democrats are heavy favorites at 85% to win the House while the Senate is a genuine toss-up at 51-49. Texas is surprisingly competitive: the Senate race is 44D/56R, the governor race saw a 9-point Democratic surge, and Ken Paxton leads the GOP Senate primary at 64% over Cornyn at 34%. The Texas primary dynamics could reshape national politics.

2026 Midterms Shaping Up: Democrats at 85% for House, Texas Governor Race Heats Up

Democrats are heavy favorites at 85% to take the House in 2026, while the Senate is a genuine toss-up (52% Dem, 49% GOP). The Texas governor race saw a notable shift with Democrats surging 9¢ to 21%. The Texas Senate race is nearly tied at 56-44 Republican, with Ken Paxton leading the GOP primary at 65%. These races could define the remainder of Trump's term.

2026 Midterms: Democrats 85¢ for House, Texas Turning Purple

The 2026 midterm landscape is crystallizing: Democrats are heavy favorites to retake the House at 85¢, but the Senate remains a genuine toss-up at 52-49. The most striking movement is Texas — Democrat for Governor jumped 9¢ to 17¢, and the Texas Senate race is 44¢ D / 55¢ R. Anti-tariff sentiment could reshape traditionally safe Republican territory. Ken Paxton leads the TX GOP Senate primary at 65¢.