Henan FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
32%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
6h ago
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Closes
May 5, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC” vs “Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Liaoning Tieren FC
0x767937…230b
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)
0xeacd4b…9c9e
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Chengdu Rongcheng FC
0x6c60ac…e575
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x265119…772e
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5)
0x1da10f…ed87
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)
0x069e2b…e280
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd79dfe…f845
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x821567…77e8
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x691544…6208
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)
0x45e030…a07f
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x796d0b…4310
Cluster 2
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x34dea0…204d
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x326ee5…214b
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x0bd1b6…c7f3
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x07f191…7772
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xda368d…516c
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5)
0x264488…7bf2
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Henan FC (-1.5)
0xd9d720…ab4c
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5)
0x7b11ba…e46e
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets: Henan FC (-2.5)
0xd8a866…979b
Analysis
This 31% probability reflects the market's assessment that Henan FC will achieve a specific outcome against Liaoning Tieren FC in an upcoming Chinese Super League match. The current level sits at the lower end of typical two-team matchup probabilities, suggesting either that Liaoning Tieren FC is favored or that the market assigns significant uncertainty to this particular contest. The probability would move based on team form leading into the match, injury reports, and recent head-to-head performance. Resolution depends on the scheduled match date and the specific outcome condition being traded. Low trading volume on related contracts ($8-390 24h) indicates limited market participation, which typically means wider bid-ask spreads and potentially less reliable pricing.
- ›Recent win-loss records and current league standings position for both Henan FC and Liaoning Tieren FC
- ›Confirmed team roster status, including availability of key players and reported injuries before match day
- ›Head-to-head historical results between these two clubs in the Chinese Super League
- ›Match venue and weather conditions on the scheduled contest date
- ›Trading volume and price movement across the 18 contracts on Polymarket in the 72 hours before kickoff
What moved the line
- May 3Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5)↑16pp14→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)↓10pp32→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC↓9pp25→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓5pp17→12¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.