Will the high temp in Miami be 75-76° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 42% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
81° to 82°
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
83° to 84°
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$51K
liquid
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will the high temp in miami
Will the **high temp in Miami** be 79-80° on May 3, 2026?: 79° to 80°
KXHIGHMIA-26MAY03-B79.5
Will the **high temp in Miami** be 81-82° on May 3, 2026?: 81° to 82°
KXHIGHMIA-26MAY03-B81.5
Will the **high temp in Miami** be 83-84° on May 3, 2026?: 83° to 84°
KXHIGHMIA-26MAY03-B83.5
Will the **high temp in Miami** be 85-86° on May 3, 2026?: 85° to 86°
KXHIGHMIA-26MAY03-B85.5
What moved the line
- May 381° to 82°↓12pp31→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 383° to 84°↑12pp29→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 385° to 86°↑11pp14→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 379° to 80°↓7pp13→6¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.