SimpleFunctions
19 contractsKalshi + Polymarketrefreshed 11 min ago

HYPE price on Apr 26, 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 47%, Polymarket at 34% — a 13pp cross-venue gap.

Implied probability

39%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

47%

8 contracts

Polymarket

34%

11 contracts

Cross-venue gap

13pp

wide divergence

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$3K

19 contracts

Top contract

25¢

$710 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 48% (26 days, 26 points)Aggregate: 48% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 19 contracts · 26d

Cross-venue edge

Kalshi 47¢ · Polymarket 34¢ · 13pp spread

Buy on Polymarket (34¢, 11 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (47¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.

Bracket families

4 clusters across 19 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 19% of their title tokens — “What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026” vs “Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026

11 contracts$2K

Cluster 2

Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above

5 contracts$6

Cluster 3

Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above

2 contracts$59

Cluster 4

Will egg prices rise by more than 0% in Apr 2026

1 contract$55

What moved the line

  • May 1Above 4.2%26pp5630¢ · Kalshi
  • May 1Above 3.6%25pp8055¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2Above 4.2%24pp3054¢ · Kalshi
  • May 1Above 4.0%22pp6846¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 28↓ 1619pp1938¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.