SimpleFunctions
18 contractsKalshi + Polymarketrefreshed 9 min ago

HYPE price up in next 15 mins

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 29%, Polymarket at 29%.

Implied probability

29%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

29%

6 contracts

Polymarket

29%

12 contracts

Cross-venue gap

0pp

tight

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$2K

18 contracts

Top contract

25¢

$710 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 29% (26 days, 26 points)Aggregate: 29% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 18 contracts · 26d

Bracket families

7 clusters across 18 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026” vs “H100 SXM price up in next week”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026

12 contracts$2K

Cluster 2

H100 SXM price up in next week

1 contract$501

Cluster 3

RTX 5090 price up in next week

1 contract$1

Cluster 4

What will Ferrari N.V. say during their next earnings call

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

A100 SXM4 price up in next week

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

B200 price up in next week

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

H200 price up in next week

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • May 2Price to Beat: 2.2838pp240¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 30Hypersail20pp4666¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 28↓ 1619pp1938¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 30↓ 1219pp278¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 28↓ 1218pp927¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.